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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/04 11:07

   Corn, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday Monday; Wheat Mixed

   Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 
20 to 22 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 
20 to 22 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. stock market 
is weaker at midday with the S&P 25 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 25 
points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is sharply 
higher with crude up 3.60 and natural gas up .09. Livestock trade is mostly 
lower with cattle the downside leader. Precious metals are weaker with gold off 
98.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade edging back to the 
highs with December corn working to consolidate over $5.00. Ethanol margins 
look to remain stable with blenders likely to see further gains into spring 
with shots being fired in the Gulf again Monday morning. Weekly export 
inspections were strong at 2.028 million metric tons (mmt) with year-to-date 
pace holding at 130%. Basis likely continues to hold the recent range into 
through the start of May. Open weather, but cooler conditions will boost 
planting but limit emergence. USDA's weekly Crop Progress report is expected to 
remain ahead of the average pace. On the July chart, support is the 20-day 
moving average at $4.63 with the Upper Bollinger Band at $4.79, which we are 
just above overnight.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 20 to 22 cents higher at midday with July action pushing 
further past the $12.00 mark with oil taking back off at midday. Meal is 1.50 
to 2.50 higher and oil is 140 to 150 points higher. South American availability 
should remain good in the near term as harvest winds down. Basis is expected to 
remain flat in the short term with exports remaining limited to keep overall 
action soft. Weekly export inspections were soft at 450,145 metric tons (mt) 
with year-to-date pace at 76%. Planting pace should pick back up as weather 
opens up for many, likely keeping us well ahead of average on the report Monday 
afternoon. On the July contract, chart support is $11.84 where we find the 
20-day moving average, and resistance is the contract high at $12.40.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are narrowly mixed with trade easing overbought conditions as 
short-term weather looks to help stabilize the western growing areas this week 
although potential improvement remains limited. The western Plains are expected 
to see further short-term rains in some areas with cooling weather to limit 
stress although the weekly report likely sees little improvement on national 
conditions today with maturity likely to remain well ahead of average. Spring 
wheat planting should expand more with open weather with planting and emergence 
likely near average. Matif wheat is weaker to start the week. Weekly export 
inspections were solid at 434,204 metric tons. Black Sea area weather has held 
the recent pattern. On the KC July chart, support is the 20-day moving average 
at $6.55 with the fresh high at $7.18 1/2 as resistance.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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