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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/26 11:02

   Soybeans Higher at Midday; Wheat Lower; Corn Mixed

   Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 17 
to 18 cents higher; wheat futures are 22 to 27 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 360 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 15 points higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are 
firmer with crude up 2.10. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold down 21.00.


   Corn futures are narrowly mixed with trade caught between soybean strength 
and wheat weakness, while spread action remains flat after reversing Tuesday. 
Ethanol margins continue to deteriorate with stocks at the highest levels since 
last May and only exceeded by spring 2020 levels. Another build of 884,000 
barrels was reported with production down 18,000 barrels. Trade will continue 
to look for further sales confirmation on the daily wire; there were no reports 
Wednesday. Basis should remain rangebound to slightly weaker in the short term 
with weather likely to slow short-term movement in some areas. Trade will 
continue watching South American weather as we head toward second-crop planting 
and development. On the March contract we have support at the 20-day moving 
average of $6.04 then the fresh high at 6.31 as resistance, which we scored 


   Soybean futures are 17 to 18 cents higher at midday with trade bouncing off 
earlier dime-lower trade to continue to hold above $14.00 nearby. Spread action 
is flat with support from meal and oil with little short-term change to the 
South American forecast. Meal is $6.00 to $7.00 higher and oil is 65 to 75 
points higher. Basis remains mostly flat in the short term. Crush margins 
remain solid with future renewable diesel demand likely to keep good support 
under oil going forward; meal has struggled with the $400 level in recent days. 
Early harvest is underway in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export 
competitiveness in February. No fresh sales showed up on the daily wire, with 
better demand likely needed to sustain fresh buying with the current forecast. 
On the March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high of $14.29 1/2, 
which we are just below at midday, with trade back above the 20-day moving 
average at $13.85 as support.


   Wheat futures are 23 to 29 cents lower at midday with trade reversing 
overnight with snow in the western Plains, and little fresh news on the 
Russia/Ukraine front overnight. The dollar remains squarely rangebound in the 
short term as well,v but is pressing back towards the upper end a bit. Plains 
weather looks a little wetter in the short term with the crop likely to stay 
dormant and some areas having better snow cover now. Spring wheat is flat 
versus Chicago, keeping the premium at $1.31 on the March, with KC at a 21-cent 
premium in firmer action. KC March chart support is the 20-day moving average 
at $7.92, which we moved above, with resistance the Upper Bollinger Band at 
$8.38, which we have pulled back from after opening trade near overnight.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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